April 22, 2009 (FinancialWire) (By Dr. Joe Duarte) — The S&P 500 (SPX) clawed its way back to 850 on 4-21, but shares of the CME Group (NYSE: CME) are still in a long-term negative chart pattern.

First, let’s have a look at the S&P 500. Over the last few it has bounced nicely, and has actually acted in a very favorable technical pattern, making higher highs and higher lows, pausing above and below easily discernable support and resistance levels, and all the while moving steadily higher.

On 4-20, it took a big hit, and got back less than 50% of it on 4-21. We’ll count that as a minor negative. Another way to look at it is that the index closed at 850, the top of a recent trading band. We’ll call that a neutral. What’s most important, though, is what happens if the index gets back to 875, the most recent resistance level that preceded Monday’s selling. If it can blast above that area, the up trend would remain intact, and the market is indeed climbing the proverbial wall of worry.

On the other hand, shares of CME Group took a tumble on Monday, sending chills down the spines of those who trade for a living. And despite the bounce back on Tuesday, the stock of the world’s leading futures and commodity exchange are far from sending a comforting message.

CME shares are to commodity markets what Goldman Sachs shares are to the stock market. These bellwether stocks are symbols of trader confidence in those sectors of the market. And while Goldman held up fairly well on Monday, CME did not.

CME shares were essentially golden when the commodity boom was rolling, making new high after new high, and clearly leading the boom. But since the October 2007 crash, the stock has lost 68% of its value, falling from 700 to nearly 150 before bouncing back to 250 or so, prior to rolling over once again in the last few days.

The problem is that even though CME bounced back, on a long term basis, it’s still in a down trend, with the shares making lower lows and lower highs. That means that there is low confidence in the commodity markets and that short sellers still have the upper hand.

From an economic standpoint, that means that the commodity markets, which are essentially moved by large corporations that use futures to hedge their risk, are betting on poor demand for raw goods for the foreseeable future.

That of course, translates into a potentially deflationary scenario, and that most big money players are not betting on any kind of significant recovery any time in the near future.

The bottom line, in our opinion is very much uncertain at this time.

The Investrend Earnings Calendar features Air Products & Chemicals (NYSE: APD), expected at $0.82 a year ago versus $1.23 a year ago; Altria Group (NYSE: MO), expected at $0.39 versus $0.37 a year ago; Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), expected at $1.08 versus $1.16 a year ago; eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY), expected at $0.33 versus $0.42 a year ago.

The Investrend Economics Calendar lists EIA Petroleum Inventories (10:30 a.m.).

The Investrend Events Calendar showcases ADBE, UL at Dow Jones Newswires Alternative Energy Innovations Spring Conference; AMP Meeting of Shareholders; CI Shareholders Meeting; CYTK, MNTA, IDRA, PCYC at American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting; DFS at SourceMedia Conferences Card Forum & Expo; GE Shareholders Meeting; HBAN Shareholders Meeting; ISRG Shareholders Meeting; JCP Analyst Meeting; KO Shareholders Meeting; UNT, CRZO, AXAS, PKD at Independent Petroleum Association of America Oil & Gas Investment Symposium New York Conference; WBSN Fifth-Annual Financial Analyst Meeting.

The Investrend Money Index is an indicator of the depth of market direction or indirection. While not always including the same stocks, the NYSE/NASDAQ 50 Most Actives indicate the direction in which the mass of money is flowing. Last session’s trading showed 37 advancers versus 12 decliners and one unchanged. Advancers were led by Emulex Corp (NYSE: ELX) up 46.75%, Us Bancorp (NYSE: USB) up 20.89%, Financial Bull 3x (NYSE: FAS) up 19.10%, Ultra Real Estate Pr (NYSE: URE) up 17.85%, E*Trade Financial Corporation (NASDAQ: ETFC) up 14.08%, Amer Intl Group Inc (NYSE: AIG) up 13.18%, Ultra Financials Pro (NYSE: UYG) up 12.96%, Huntington Bancshares Incorpora (NASDAQ: HBAN) up 10.93%, Dryships Inc. (NASDAQ: DRYS) up 10.69%, Wells Fargo & Co New (NYSE: WFC) up 10.65%, Citigroup Inc (NYSE: C) up 10.20%, Jp Morgan Chase Co (NYSE: JPM) up 9.57%, Bk Of America Cp (NYSE: BAC) up 9.23%, Fifth Third Bancorp (NASDAQ: FITB) up 8.49%, The Charles Schwab Corporation (NASDAQ: SCHW) up 6.95%, Hudson City Bancorp, Inc. (NASDAQ: HCBK) up 6.82%. Decliners followed Financial Bear 3x (NYSE: FAZ) down 21.32%, Ultrashort Real Esta (NYSE: SRS) down 18.02%, Zions Bancorporation (NASDAQ: ZION) down 15.39%, Ultrashort Financial (NYSE: SKF) down 14.41%, Merck Co Inc (NYSE: MRK) down 6.66%.

Vote in the Investrend Poll Question of the Day at Investrend Information (http://www.investrendinformation.com).

Investrend Website of the Day: http://www.earthsite.org/

Quote of the Day: “Any man whose errors take ten years to correct is quite a man.” J. Robert Oppenheimer

Today is: Earth Day, Jelly Bean Day.

Happy Birthday: James Stirling, Henry Fielding, Immanuel Kant, Ellen Glasgow, Vladimir Nabokov, Harold Jeffreys, Robert Oppenheimer, Eddie Albert, Aaron Spelling, Glen Campbell, Jack Nicholson, Steve Fossett, Peter Frampton, Marshawn Lynch.

Today in History: Portuguese navigator Pedro Álvares Cabral became in 1500 the first European to sight Brazil. Treaty of Saragossa in 1529 divided the eastern hemisphere between Spain and Portugal along a line 297.5 leagues or 17° east of the Moluccas. A day after the Battle of San Jacinto in 1836, forces under Texas General Sam Houston captured Mexican General Antonio López de Santa Anna. The U.S. Congress passed the Coinage Act in 1864, which mandated that the inscription “In God We Trust” be placed on all coins minted as United States currency. The Boston Red Stockings defeated the Philadelphia Athletics 6-5 in 1876 in the first National League Baseball game. The First Earth Day was celebrated in 1970.

[FirstAlert^TM was created by Gayle Essary, founder of Investrend Communications, Inc., parent of Investrend Information (http://www.investrendinformation.com). The opinions expressed in FirstAlert^TM do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Investrend.]

FinancialWire(tm) is a fully independent, proprietary news wire service. FinancialWire(tm) is not a press release service, and receives no compensation for its news, opinions or distributions. Further disclosure is at the FinancialWire(tm) web site (http://www.financialwire.net/disclosures.php). Contact FinancialWire(tm) directly via inquiries@financialwire.net.

Free annual reports for companies mentioned in the news are available through the Free Annual Reports Service (http://investrend.ar.wilink.com/?level=279).

Legal Disclaimer:

EIN Presswire provides this news content "as is" without warranty of any kind. We do not accept any responsibility or liability for the accuracy, content, images, videos, licenses, completeness, legality, or reliability of the information contained in this article. If you have any complaints or copyright issues related to this article, kindly contact the author above.