March 17, 2009 (FinancialWire) (By Philip Holmes) -- Stocks ended their four-day rally on Monday as winners scooped up their profits. Investors took in some grim numbers from the March Empire State index, including a 1.4% drop in industrial production during February. That's a new low for industrial production, which has contracted in five of the last six months, according to BusinessWeek. Does the four-day rally offer hope for investors who have been clobbered by the bear in recent months? Not really, according to BusinessWeek's David Bogoslaw, who says "the odds for a recovery within the year or even the next two look worse with each passing day," and "implications for when and how investors can start to rebuild their retirement savings are equally grim." On the recent rally, which saw consecutive days' gains not seen since last November, Bogoslaw cautions with a question, "What on the economic horizon has substantially changed since then?" He points out that the TARP isn't working and that no consensus has been reached in Washington on what to do with the toxic assets still clogging the balance sheets of financial institutions. The Street sees Paulson II in the Obama team's response, and it isn't impressed. Investors need to take a defensive stance. One of Bogoslaw's experts, Waddell & Reed Financial's Michael Avery, is taking that creed to an extreme with the Ivy Asset Strategy fund by keeping 18% of its assets in gold bullion, 37% in cash, and about 11% in bonds. The fund shifted its balance somewhat from Treasury notes to commercial paper in search of higher yields. But still. Bogoslaw says that, "It's also critical that financial advisers are prepared to jettison traditional asset allocation assumptions for what could be an extended period of pain." Everyone is, of course, wondering how bad things will get. Are stocks cheap due to panic, or will they fall further as the world economy slides further into a depression? Look behind the shouty, made for cable "debates," and it's clear that arguments over Obama's response to the crisis tap into a deeper concern: are the problems we now face beyond the reach of traditional interventions, such as massive stimulus spending? Are we looking at Japan in the 90s, the U.S. in the early thirties or, heaven forbid, Germany in the early twenties? No one seems to sure, but the current politics is failing its anger-management class homework. What we do see, as AIG executives slobber over their bonus packets, is a rise in popular outrage. Obama and his team certainly have their work cut out for them, on all fronts.

The Investrend Earnings Calendar features AAR Corp. (NYSE: AIR), expected at $0.47; Adobe Systems (NASDAQ: ADBE), expected at $0.44; FactSet Research Systems (NYSE: FDS), expected at $0.69; Guess (NYSE: GES), expected at $0.52.

The Investrend Economics Calendar lists Housing Starts & Building Permits for February (8:30 a.m.), Producer Price Index (PPI) for February (8:30 a.m.), Weekly Chain Store Sales (8:55 a.m.).

The Investrend Events Calendar showcases BKC, EAT, JACK, CPKI at JPMorgan Gaming, Lodging, Restaurant & Leisure Conference; CBE, DRC, KBR at WJB Capital Houston Energy & Infrastructure Bus Tour; CELG, MDT, BIIB, SQNM at Cowen and Company Healthcare Conference; DD, STP, CVA, NLC at Jefferies Global Clean Technology; DMND, PVSW at B. Riley & Company Las Vegas Investor Conference; LTM at Credit Suisse Group Retail Roundup; RRR at Barclay's High Yield Conference.

The Investrend Money Index is an indicator of the depth of market direction or indirection. While not always including the same stocks, the NYSE/NASDAQ 50 Most Actives indicate the direction in which the mass of money is flowing. Last session's trading showed 13 advancers versus 37 decliners. Advancers were led by Citigroup Inc (NYSE: C) up 30.90%, Huntington Bancshares Incorpora (NASDAQ: HBAN) up 12.82%, Bk Of America Cp (NYSE: BAC) up 7.29%, Alcoa Inc (NYSE: AA) up 6.81%, Financial Bear 3x (NYSE: FAZ) up 6.05%. Decliners followed Sprint Nxtel Cp (NYSE: S) down 13.77%, Las Vegas Sands Corp (NYSE: LVS) down 12.33%, Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) down 9.40%, Dryships Inc. (NASDAQ: DRYS) down 7.54%, Hartford Fin Svc (NYSE: HIG) down 6.96%.

Vote in the Investrend Poll Question of the Day at Investrend Information (http://www.investrendinformation.com).

Investrend Website of the Day: http://www.testyfesty.com/

Quote of the Day: "Careers, like rockets, don't always take off on time. The trick is to always keep the engine running." Gary Sinise

Today is: Feast day of St Patrick.

Happy Birthday: Gottlieb Daimler, Shemp Howard, Bobby Jones, Nat King Cole, James Irwin, Ken Mattingly, Rudolf Nureyev, Paul Kantner, John Sebastian, Patrick Duffy, Kurt Russell, Gary Sinise, Rob Lowe, Mia Hamm.

Today in History: Nevada legalized gambling in 1931. In Washington, DC, the National Gallery of Art was officially opened in 1941 by President Franklin D. Roosevelt. University of California, Berkeley researchers announced the creation in 1950 of element 98, which they named Californium. Golda Meir of Milwaukee, Wisconsin, became prime minister of Israel in 1969.

[FirstAlert" was created by Gayle Essary, founder of Investrend Communications, Inc., parent of Investrend Information (http://www.investrendinformation.com). The opinions expressed in FirstAlert" do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Investrend.]

FinancialWire" ( http://www.financialwire.net ), an independent, proprietary news service of Investrend Communications, Inc., receives no compensation for its news or opinions. Further disclosure is at http://www.investrend.com/articles/secondlevel.asp?level=472 . To contact FinancialWire" write to inquiries@financialwire.net .

Free annual reports for companies mentioned in the news are accessible via http://investrend.ar.wilink.com/?level=279 .

Copyright(C)2009 by financialwire.net, Inc. All rights reserved.

Legal Disclaimer:

EIN Presswire provides this news content "as is" without warranty of any kind. We do not accept any responsibility or liability for the accuracy, content, images, videos, licenses, completeness, legality, or reliability of the information contained in this article. If you have any complaints or copyright issues related to this article, kindly contact the author above.