Zacks Analyst Interview Highlights: Pfizer, Eli Lilly, Bristol-Myers Squibb and Sanofi-Aventis
CHICAGO---Zacks.com releases the latest Analyst Interview. Today's interview is with senior analyst Jason Napodano, who discusses Pfizer (NYSE: PFE), Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY), Bristol-Myers Squibb (NYSE: BMY) and Sanofi-Aventis (NYSE: SNY).
A synopsis of today's Analyst Interview is presented below. The full article can be read at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2678.
Is it fair to say Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) is not the only big pharma company with pipeline issues?
Yeah, one of the companies we recently downgraded was Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY), and this is what happens when a company reports, unfortunately, that a phase III candidate doesn't do all that well in clinical trials: Prasugrel, which is a potential competing agent to Bristol-Myers Squibb (NYSE: BMY) and Sanofi-Aventis' (NYSE: SNY) Plavix - the world's second-largest-selling drug. Lilly recently released phase III data on a head-to-head trial of Prasugrel versus Plavix.
Initially, the data looked very good. It actually showed that Prasugrel was more effective than Plavix in what's known as "reducing cardiovascular events" - the risk of heart attack, stroke and death - by 19%. So 19% more effective than the world's second-best-selling drug. But here's the caveat: it also showed an increase of what's known as "bleeding and major bleeding" by 32%, and "life-threatening bleeding" by 52% over Plavix.
This data is very hard to interpret. Here you have a drug that's clearly more efficacious, but it also looks like it is more dangerous to take. And Plavix is a $6 billion product, and is very effective; the FDA has approved multiple indications for Plavix. At this point, we just don't see Prasugrel making it to market without further testing. Lilly is going to file for approval probably in the next couple months. We think they'll get what's called an "approvable" letter. There's another large-scale phase III trial going on at Lilly to try to show some additional safety, but that data won't be out for some time.
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The performance of the Zacks Rank portfolios shown above for annual and year-to-date periods are the linked monthly total returns (price changes + dividends) of equal weighted hypothetical portfolios, consisting of those stocks with the indicated Zacks Rank, assuming monthly rebalancing and zero transaction costs. These are not the returns of actual portfolios. The hypothetical portfolios were created at the beginning of each month from Jan 1988 forward based on the values of the Zacks Rank available to Zacks' clients before the beginning of each month. The portfolios created monthly from 1988 through September 2006 exclude ADRs and are comprised of stocks that have the indicated Zacks Rank and were covered by at least two analysts at the time of the stocks inclusion in the portfolio. Starting in October 2006 and going forward, the portfolios are comprised of all stocks with the indicated Zacks Rank and do not exclude ADRs, which is more reflective of the list of stocks that customers will find on the Zacks web sites. 2007 returns are for the period of Jan 1 - Jun 30, 2007. These performance numbers have been audited from 1995 through 2003 by Autschuler Melovan, a division of American Express Financial.
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Terry Ruffolo
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Visit: www.zacks.com
A synopsis of today's Analyst Interview is presented below. The full article can be read at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2678.
Is it fair to say Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) is not the only big pharma company with pipeline issues?
Yeah, one of the companies we recently downgraded was Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY), and this is what happens when a company reports, unfortunately, that a phase III candidate doesn't do all that well in clinical trials: Prasugrel, which is a potential competing agent to Bristol-Myers Squibb (NYSE: BMY) and Sanofi-Aventis' (NYSE: SNY) Plavix - the world's second-largest-selling drug. Lilly recently released phase III data on a head-to-head trial of Prasugrel versus Plavix.
Initially, the data looked very good. It actually showed that Prasugrel was more effective than Plavix in what's known as "reducing cardiovascular events" - the risk of heart attack, stroke and death - by 19%. So 19% more effective than the world's second-best-selling drug. But here's the caveat: it also showed an increase of what's known as "bleeding and major bleeding" by 32%, and "life-threatening bleeding" by 52% over Plavix.
This data is very hard to interpret. Here you have a drug that's clearly more efficacious, but it also looks like it is more dangerous to take. And Plavix is a $6 billion product, and is very effective; the FDA has approved multiple indications for Plavix. At this point, we just don't see Prasugrel making it to market without further testing. Lilly is going to file for approval probably in the next couple months. We think they'll get what's called an "approvable" letter. There's another large-scale phase III trial going on at Lilly to try to show some additional safety, but that data won't be out for some time.
Zacks "Profit from the Pros" e-mail newsletter provides highlights of the latest analysis from Zacks Equity Research. Subscribe to this free newsletter today by visiting http://at.zacks.com/?id=2679.
About Zacks
The performance of the Zacks Rank portfolios shown above for annual and year-to-date periods are the linked monthly total returns (price changes + dividends) of equal weighted hypothetical portfolios, consisting of those stocks with the indicated Zacks Rank, assuming monthly rebalancing and zero transaction costs. These are not the returns of actual portfolios. The hypothetical portfolios were created at the beginning of each month from Jan 1988 forward based on the values of the Zacks Rank available to Zacks' clients before the beginning of each month. The portfolios created monthly from 1988 through September 2006 exclude ADRs and are comprised of stocks that have the indicated Zacks Rank and were covered by at least two analysts at the time of the stocks inclusion in the portfolio. Starting in October 2006 and going forward, the portfolios are comprised of all stocks with the indicated Zacks Rank and do not exclude ADRs, which is more reflective of the list of stocks that customers will find on the Zacks web sites. 2007 returns are for the period of Jan 1 - Jun 30, 2007. These performance numbers have been audited from 1995 through 2003 by Autschuler Melovan, a division of American Express Financial.
Contacts
Zacks.com
Terry Ruffolo
Media Relations
312-265-9213
Visit: www.zacks.com
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