Over the Next Decade, Commercial Aviation Capacity Anticipated to Grow Strongly; North America to Dominate World’s Business Aviation Fleets; Airbus to Lead Helicopter Deliveries

NEW YORK, Oct. 10, 2019 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Aviation Week Network today issued its 2020 Fleet & MRO Forecasts, covering the Commercial Aviation, Military, Business Aviation and Helicopter market sectors.  These 10-year projections are based on independent data and predictive intelligence gathered by Aviation Week Network’s in-house forecasting team in conjunction with external advisory board members.

In Commercial Aviation, despite the anticipated global economic slowdown, capacity is anticipated to growth strongly over the next 10 years driven by demographic trends, with total MRO spend forecast to be $943.4 Billion. “On the commercial front, during the 10-year forecast period, nearly 23,200 new aircraft will be delivered, and more than 10,750 aircraft will be retired,” said Brian Kough, Senior Director, Forecasts & Aerospace Insights, Intelligence & Data Service.  “At risk is Boeing’s delivery schedule and profitability.  A delivery spike in year 2020 of the Boeing 737 MAX aircraft/LEAP-1B engine is expected with the anticipated lifting of the worldwide grounding of this aircraft in late Q4/2019 and the succeeding push throughout 2020 to deliver hundreds of aircraft that have been built but are awaiting final delivery to airline customers.  This unprecedented historical situation will be compounded by the need to deliver previously promised aircraft scheduled in the year 2020 as well.” 

In Business Aviation, North America regionally will continue to dominate the world’s business fleets followed by Western Europe in a distant second place. Textron Aviation will lead deliveries at 24% over the decade.  During the 10-year period, total MRO spend is forecast to be $134.5 Billion, with deliveries totaling 10,900 aircraft and retirements totaling 7,644 aircraft.

Helicopter MRO spend over the 10-year forecast period is forecast to be $68.2 Billion.  Deliveries are predicted to total 7,460 aircraft, led by Airbus Helicopters who will represent a 36% share of all deliveries worth $11.2 billion, followed closely in second place by Bell.  Retirements are predicted to total 3,576 aircraft. 

Military findings are scheduled for release in early November 2019.

“The just-released Aviation Week Network 2020 Fleet & MRO Forecasts, based on our Fleet Discovery aircraft database, combine aircraft fleet changes and segmented MRO cost analytics to permit users to quickly and easily focus on key future fleet trends and locate where MRO demand movements occur over the next 10 years across the commercial, military, business and civil helicopter market sectors,” said Kough.  “The forecasts provide unrivaled insights into future fleet composition, and MRO analysis is easily understood either with preformatted reports or via the user-defined filters on our dashboards.  These tools will help industry professionals strategize for new business opportunities and focus on maximizing revenue, while minimizing risk.”

For more information on Aviation Week’s 2019 Fleet & MRO Forecasts or to subscribe, contact Anne McMahon at +1 646 469 1564, anne.mcmahon@aviationweek.com or Thom Clayton at  +44 (0) 20 7017 6106, thom.clayton@aviationweek.com or go to http://pages.aviationweek.com/forecasts.  

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