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Serinus Announces 2015 Year End Reserves


/EINPresswire.com/ -- CALGARY, ALBERTA -- (Marketwired) -- 03/16/16 -- Serinus Energy Inc. ("Serinus", "SEN" or the "Company") (TSX: SEN) (WARSAW: SEN), is pleased to report the results of the year-end evaluation of its oil and gas reserves. The evaluation was prepared by RPS Energy Canada Ltd. ("RPS") in accordance with Canadian National Instrument 51-101 - Standards of Disclosure for Oil and Gas Activities, and includes the reserves in Serinus' Ukraine licences, and in its Tunisian properties. RPS also assigned contingent resources to the Company's Satu Mare licence in Romania.

All of the reserves volumes as well as the net present values attributed to the Ukraine Reserves disclosed herein, refer to Serinus' 70% effective ownership interest in the assets through its 70% indirect ownership in KUB-Gas LLC ("KUB-Gas"), which owns and operates the six licence areas in northeast Ukraine. For the Total Company figures, those aggregate values are also based on 70% interest in the Ukraine assets. Note that the Company sold all of its interests in Ukraine subsequent to December 31, 2015.


Company Reserves - Using Forecast Prices
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                           2015                      2014
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                       YoY
                Oil/Liquids   Gas    BOE  Oil/Liquids   Gas    BOE   Change
                   (Mbbl)   (MMcf)  (Mboe)   (Mbbl)   (MMcf)  (Mboe)   (%)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                   Tunisia
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Proved
  Producing           1,468   2,578  1,897      1,602   3,059  2,112  -10%
  Non-Producing         301   1,337    524        402   1,740    692  -24%
  Undeveloped           848   1,806  1,150      1,066   2,478  1,478  -22%
  --------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total Proved
 (1P)                 2,617   5,722  3,571      3,070   7,277  4,283  -17%
Probable              5,799  14,490  8,214      5,266  12,704  7,383   11%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total Proved &
 Probable (2P)        8,417  20,212 11,785      8,336  19,981 11,666   1%
Possible             11,537  25,038 15,710      9,606  22,323 13,327   18%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total Proved,
 Probable &
 Possible (3P)       19,953  45,250 27,495     17,942  42,304 24,993   10%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                     Ukraine (70% SEN Working Interest)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Proved
  Producing              60  12,878  2,207         63  12,452  2,139   3%
  Non-Producing          20   4,375    749         22   4,296    738   2%
  Undeveloped            41   6,342  1,098         21   2,800    488  125%
  --------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total Proved
 (1P)                   121  23,595  4,054        106  19,548  3,364   20%
Probable                135  16,378  2,864        215  25,599  4,482  -36%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total Proved &
 Probable (2P)          256  39,973  6,918        321  45,147  7,846  -12%
Possible                260  20,591  3,692        359  28,662  5,136  -28%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total Proved,
 Probable &
 Possible (3P)          516  60,564 10,610        680  73,809 12,981  -18%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                TOTAL COMPANY
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Proved
  Producing           1,528  15,456  4,104      1,665  15,512  4,250   -3%
  Non-Producing         321   5,712  1,274        424   6,036  1,430  -11%
  Undeveloped           889   8,148  2,247      1,086   5,278  1,966   14%
  --------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total Proved
 (1P)                 2,738  29,317  7,625      3,176  26,825  7,647   0%
Probable              5,934  30,868 11,078      5,481  38,303 11,865   -7%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total Proved &
 Probable (2P)        8,673  60,185 18,703      8,657  65,128 19,511   -4%
Possible             11,797  45,629 19,402      9,965  50,985 18,463   5%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total Proved,
 Probable &
 Possible (3P)       20,469 105,814 38,105     18,622 116,114 37,974   0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Serinus reports in US dollars. All dollar amounts referred to herein
Note: are in USD, unless specifically noted otherwise.

2015 was another challenging year for Serinus and the petroleum industry in general. For the industry, the continuing issue was the collapse in oil prices. The price of Brent Crude started at over $56/bbl in early January, strengthened to above $66/bbl in May, then falling below $37/bbl by year end. During January 2016, it reached $28.55/bbl before finding some strength and has been recently trading near $40/bbl. This has reduced profitability for the entire industry, and caused significant changes in the economic value, and in some cases, the economic viability of reserves and resources.

Total corporate 1P and 3P reserves were substantially unchanged from 2014, while 2P reserves fell by 4%. Lower commodity prices and price forecasts were the dominant factor in 2015. The forecast price for Brent crude for 2016 is $44/bbl, vs. $74.64/bbl in the 2014 evaluation, and in the longer term, the new forecast only recovers to 92% of that used last year. This reduced reserves volumes due to earlier economic cut-offs, and delays some development plans. Individual fields (or countries) had other positive and negative revisions as well which are discussed below.

As in previous years, there were markedly different results between Ukraine and Tunisia, the two countries in which the Company's reserves were located.

Tunisia

In Tunisia, 1P reserves decreased by 17%, while 2P and 3P reserves increased by 1% and 10% respectively. In addition to the effects of lower commodity prices, the revisions to reserves include:


--  Future development in Sabria now contemplates the use of dual lateral
    horizontal wells. These are expected to have higher IP rates and
    recoveries at the 1P, 2P and 3P levels, while reducing overall capital
    costs.

--  Better than expected performance from the CS-3 and CS-7 wells.

--  Smaller technical revisions included:

    --  Negative revisions to Proved Developed Producing ("PDP") reserves
        for several wells that are currently awaiting workover, stimulation
        or other remedial measures.

    --  a lower gas oil ratio in the Sabria Field leading to lower gas
        reserves

Ukraine

1P reserves in Ukraine increased by 20% and 2P and 3P reserves decreased by 12% and 18% respectively compared to year end 2014. The key influences on the Ukraine reserves were:


--  Positive technical revisions due to

    --  the success of the R30c zone in O-11 and the subsequent addition of
        a new R30c location

    --  the installation of field compression in the Olgovskoye Field, and
        resultant better production performance

    --  a new horizontal location in the Makeevskoye Field.

--  Negative technical revisions due to:

    --  reduced pool volumetrics around the O-24 well

    --  the M-19 well watering out earlier than previously anticipated

    --  decline in the M20 R8 pool production performance

--  Net positive economic revisions, as reductions in the nominal royalty
    rates from 55% to 29% for gas more than offset the effects of lower
    commodity prices, extending the economic life of the properties.


Net Present Value - After Tax, Using Forecast
 Prices

----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                               2015                    2014
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                  YoY Change
                             0%    10%    15%     0%    10%    15% for PV10
                            (US$ millions)      (US$ millions)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                   Tunisia
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Proved
  Producing                 3.7    7.4    7.9   27.2   27.2   26.5   -73%
  Non-Producing             9.9    8.1    7.0   19.0   15.4   13.7   -47%
  Undeveloped              16.9    5.7    2.9   36.3   18.4   13.4   -69%
  --------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total Proved (1P)          30.5   21.2   17.8   82.5   60.9   53.6   -65%
Probable                  216.1   88.2   62.4  216.3   97.0   73.4    -9%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total Proved & Probable
 (2P)                     246.6  109.4   80.2  298.8  157.9  127.0   -31%
Possible                  514.9  140.0   92.0  432.7  140.2   98.6    0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total Proved, Probable &
 Possible (3P)            761.5  249.4  172.2  731.5  298.1  225.6   -16%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                     Ukraine (70% SEN Working Interest)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Proved
  Producing                34.2   29.2   27.0   35.6   30.8   28.6    -5%
  Non-Producing            15.8   11.0    9.4    7.4    4.8    3.9   128%
  Undeveloped               9.0    2.0      -    1.1  (0.5)  (0.8)    nm
  --------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total Proved (1P)          58.8   42.5   36.9   44.1   35.1   31.7    21%
Probable                   76.5   35.4   25.8   78.7   42.3   33.4   -16%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total Proved & Probable
 (2P)                     135.3   77.9   62.7  122.8   77.4   65.1    1%
Possible                  115.6   47.8   34.5  111.0   46.0   33.3    4%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total Proved, Probable &
 Possible (3P)            250.9  125.7   97.2  233.8  123.4   98.3    2%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                TOTAL COMPANY
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Proved
  Producing                37.9   36.6   34.9   62.7   58.0   55.1   -37%
  Non-Producing            25.7   19.1   16.4   26.4   20.2   17.6    -5%
  Undeveloped              60.5    7.7    2.9   37.4   17.9   12.6   -57%
  --------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total Proved (1P)          89.3   63.7   54.7  126.6   96.0   85.3   -34%
Probable                  292.6  123.6   88.2  295.0  139.3  106.8   -11%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total Proved & Probable
 (2P)                     381.9  187.3  142.9  421.6  235.3  192.1   -20%
Possible                  630.5  187.8  126.5  543.7  186.2  131.8    1%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total Proved, Probable &
 Possible (3P)          1,012.4  375.1  269.4  965.3  421.5  323.9   -11%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Net present values for Serinus' reserves declined by 34%, 20% and 11% for 1P, 2P and 3P reserves respectively. The major contributing factors to those declines were:


--  The drop in commodity prices

--  The decrease in royalty rates effective January 1, 2016 on oil and gas
    production by the Ukraine government partially offset the effect of
    commodity prices there.

--  The changes in reserve volumes as discussed above.

Tunisia

The decline in oil prices significantly outweighed all other factors, even in the 2P and 3P categories which experienced net volume increases.

The drop in oil prices has an effect on Tunisian gas prices as well. In general, gas in Tunisia is priced as an equivalent to low sulphur heating oil, which in turn, will fluctuate with oil prices.

Ukraine

Serinus' production in Ukraine was 98% natural gas, and while the drop was not as severe as that for Brent crude, the price forecast is still materially lower than that used for year end 2014. The average expected prices for 2016 and 2017 are $5.99 and $6.43/Mcf respectively, vs. $8.34 and $8.58/Mcf last year.

The more significant impact on the value of the Ukraine reserves came from the decrease in nominal natural gas royalties from 55% to 29% effective January 1, 2016. This more than offset the loss in value due to the lower commodity price forecasts in all three categories.

Contingent Resources - Romania

In addition to the 1P, 2P and 3P reserves assigned to the Company's properties in Tunisia and Ukraine, contingent resources were also assigned to the Moftinu discovery in Romania made in early 2015. The Moftinu-1001 well tested at a maximum rate of 7.4 MMcf/d and 19 bbl/d of condensate. The currently development plan contemplates three development well and a gas plant tying into an existing sales line running through the Satu Mare concession. The resources and their net present values are shown in the table below.


                 Resource Volumes (unrisked)  AT NPV (unrisked)
                 --------------------------- ------------------ ------------
                                                                 Probability
                 Oil/Liquids     Gas     BOE     0%  10%    15%      of
                      (Mbbl)  (MMcf)  (Mboe)    ($ millions)     Development
-------------------------------------------- ------------------ ------------
1C Contingent
 Resources              17.7   6,976 1,180.3   10.8   6.9   5.4      85%
2C Contingent
 Resources              41.8  12,632 2,147.1   36.7  24.5  20.2      85%
3C Contingent
 Resources              96.3  24,203 4,130.2   94.9  57.2  45.7      85%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Pending regulatory approvals by the Romanian government and the ability to finance, first production is anticipated in early 2017 and will require $14 million of capital expenditures.


Finding and Development Costs

Total Corporate Finding and Development Costs, excluding Acquisitions

----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                              Total Proved Reserves
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                      3 Year
                                          2015      2014      2013     Total

Exploration and
 Development Costs           (M$)       18,875    67,453    75,560   161,888
Net Change in Future
 Development Costs           (M$)       22,750  (22,647)     3,537     3,640
                                    ----------------------------------------
Total Finding &
 Development Costs           (M$)       41,625    44,806    79,097   165,528
Reserve Additions
 (excluding acquisition)    (Mboe)       2,189     1,075       914     4,178
                                    ----------------------------------------
Finding & Development
 Costs                      ($/Boe)     $19.02    $41.68    $86.52    $39.62
----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Finding and Development Costs

Total Corporate Finding and Development Costs, excluding Acquisitions

----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                        Total Proved & Probable Reserves
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                      3 Year
                                          2015      2014      2013     Total

Exploration and
 Development Costs           (M$)       18,875    67,453    75,560   161,888
Net Change in Future
 Development Costs           (M$)       19,960  (22,597)     3,537       900
                                    ----------------------------------------
Total Finding &
 Development Costs           (M$)       38,835    44,856    79,097   162,788
Reserve Additions
 (excluding acquisition)    (Mboe)         709       978     1,399     3,087
                                    ----------------------------------------
Finding & Development
 Costs                      ($/Boe)     $54.77    $45.85    $56.52    $52.74
----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total Corporate Finding, Development and Acquisition Costs
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                              Total Proved Reserves
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                      3 Year
                                          2015      2014      2013     Total

Exploration and
 Development Costs           (M$)       18,875    67,453    75,560   161,888
Acquisition/Disposition
 Costs                       (M$)            -         -    99,518    99,518
Net Change in Future
 Development Costs           (M$)       22,750  (22,647)    33,437    33,540
                                    ----------------------------------------
Total Finding &
 Development Costs           (M$)       41,625    44,806   208,515   294,946
Reserve Additions           (Mboe)       2,189     1,075     4,656     7,920
                                    ----------------------------------------
Finding & Development
 Costs                      ($/Boe)     $19.02    $41.68    $44.78    $37.24
----------------------------------------------------------------------------


Total Corporate Finding, Development and Acquisition Costs
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                        Total Proved & Probable Reserves
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                      3 Year
                                          2015      2014      2013     Total

Exploration and
 Development Costs           (M$)       18,875    67,453    75,560   161,888
Acquisition/Disposition
 Costs                       (M$)            -         -    99,518    99,518
Net Change in Future
 Development Costs           (M$)       19,960  (22,597)    61,177    58,540
                                    ----------------------------------------
Total Finding &
 Development Costs           (M$)       38,835    44,856   236,255   319,946
Reserve Additions           (Mboe)         709       978    12,783    14,471
                                    ----------------------------------------
Finding & Development
 Costs                      ($/Boe)     $54.77    $45.85    $18.48    $22.11
----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Note: Finding, Development (and Acquisition Costs) in the tables above are shown and calculated on the basis of 100% working interest in Ukraine, consistent with the consolidated financial reporting and statements.

Reserve Evaluator Price Forecasts

RPS used the following commodity price forecasts in preparing its evaluation of Serinus' oil and gas properties.


                              Ukraine                      Tunisia Gas
                  Brent     Condensate       Gas       Sabria      Chouech
                 ($/Bbl)      ($/Bbl)      ($/Mcf)     ($/Mcf)     ($/Mcf)
2016              44.00        33.96        5.99        7.15        7.78
2017              50.00        38.60        6.43        8.13        8.84
2018              58.00        44.77        7.02        9.43        10.25
2019              65.00        50.17        7.53        10.57       11.49
2020              73.00        56.35        8.12        11.87       12.91
2021              78.00        60.21        8.49        12.68       13.79
2022              83.00        64.07        8.86        13.49       14.67
2023              88.00        67.93        9.23        14.30       15.56
2024              93.00        71.79        9.60        15.12       16.44
2025              95.61        73.80        9.79        15.54       16.90
2026              97.52        75.28        9.93        15.85       17.24
2027              99.47        76.78        10.07       16.17       17.59
2028             101.46        78.32        10.22       16.49       17.94
2029             103.49        79.88        10.37       16.82       18.30
2030             105.56        81.48        10.52       17.16       18.66
2031             107.67        83.11        10.68       17.50       19.04
2032             109.82        84.77        10.84       17.85       19.42
2033             112.02        86.47        11.00       18.21       19.80
2034             114.26        88.20        11.16       18.57       20.20

Abbreviations
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
bbl         Barrel(s)                 bbl/d       Barrels per day
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                  Barrels of Oil Equivalent
boe         Barrels of Oil Equivalent boe/d       per day
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                  Thousand Cubic Feet per
Mcf         Thousand Cubic Feet       Mcf/d       day
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
MMcf        Million Cubic Feet        MMcf/d      Million Cubic Feet per day
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
            Thousand Cubic Feet                   Thousand Cubic Feet
Mcfe        Equivalent                Mcfe/d      Equivalent per day
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
            Million Cubic Feet                    Million Cubic Feet
MMcfe       Equivalent                MMcfe/d     Equivalent per day
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Mboe        Thousand boe              Bcf         Billion Cubic Feet
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
MMboe       Million boe               Mcm         Thousand Cubic Metres
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
UAH         Ukrainian Hryvnia         USD         U.S. Dollar
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
CAD         Canadian Dollar
----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Cautionary Statement:

BOEs may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation. A BOE conversion ratio of 6 Mcf:1 bbl is based on an energy equivalency conversion method primarily applicable at the burner tip and does not represent a value equivalency at the wellhead.

Test results are not necessarily indicative of long-term performance or of ultimate recovery. The test data contained herein is considered preliminary until full pressure transient analysis is complete.

About Serinus

Serinus is an international upstream oil and gas exploration and production company that owns and operates projects in Tunisia and Romania.

For further information, please refer to the Serinus website (www.serinusenergy.com).

Translation: This news release has been translated into Polish from the English original.

Forward-looking Statements This release may contain forward-looking statements made as of the date of this announcement with respect to future activities that either are not or may not be historical facts. Although the Company believes that its expectations reflected in the forward-looking statements are reasonable as of the date hereof, any potential results suggested by such statements involve risk and uncertainties and no assurance can be given that actual results will be consistent with these forward-looking statements. Various factors that could impair or prevent the Company from completing the expected activities on its projects include that the Company's projects experience technical and mechanical problems, there are changes in product prices, failure to obtain regulatory approvals, the state of the national or international monetary, oil and gas, financial, political and economic markets in the jurisdictions where the Company operates and other risks not anticipated by the Company or disclosed in the Company's published material. Since forward-looking statements address future events and conditions, by their very nature, they involve inherent risks and uncertainties and actual results may vary materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statement. The Company undertakes no obligation to revise or update any forward-looking statements in this announcement to reflect events or circumstances after the date of this announcement, unless required by law.

Contacts:
Serinus Energy Inc. - Canada
Norman W. Holton
Vice Chairman
+1-403-264-8877
nholton@serinusenergy.com

Serinus Energy Inc. - Canada
Gregory M. Chornoboy
Director - Capital Markets & Corporate Development
+1-403-264-8877
gchornoboy@serinusenergy.com

Serinus Energy Inc. - Poland
Jakub J. Korczak
Vice President Investor Relations & Managing Director CEE
+48 22 414 21 00
jkorczak@serinusenergy.com