September 4, 2009 (FinancialWire) — Dr. Joe Duarte (http://www.joe-duarte.com) recently noted: As the employment numbers approach, our bellwether stocks, Manpower Inc. (NYSE: MAN), Monster Worldwide (NYSE: MWW) and Administaff (NYSE: ASF) suggest that the worst may be over, but that perhaps the good news won’t be so good, especially for small business.

Duarte added: The economic data over the last few weeks has been fairly encouraging, at least if you’re in the camp that believes that the worst is over with regard to the recession.

But, the centerpiece of all data is still the employment picture. That’s why Friday’s job report is once again going to be a market mover.

Gazing into our equity crystal ball, and looking at shares of Manpower Inc., Monster Worldwide, and Administaff, we see an evolving picture. Over the last few months, these stocks had predicted less than stellar reports. And by and large, they hit and missed, clearly reflecting the overall uncertainty among investors about the economy.

This time around, the message is a bit clearer, especially for the upper end of the employment curve, which is the province of Manpower. The stock made a new high on August 28, and has remained above the key support of is 20-day moving average even during the recent selloff in the S&P 500. That suggests investor confidence with regard to the upper end of the employment curve, the executive suite.

Monster Worldwide, whose Monster Employment Index has been fairly accurate over the last few months, has been acting fairly similarly to Manpower. That suggests that investors are also confident about an improving picture in the technical and middle of the curve sector of the employment situation.

Where the trouble may lie is with small business. Administaff has lagged this market badly. And the stock’s poor performance mirrors the ongoing threat to the commercial real estate market and the rise in loan defaults in that sector of the economy. Small businesses tend to operate from strip malls and leased spaces. As the situation in commercial real estate worsens, so are the chances of rising layoffs and business closings in the small business community.

Administaff makes its money by providing outsourced payroll and human resources services to small businesses. That means that the market may be factoring in a further slowing in the company’s business.

The company, in its most recent quarter reported a 3.8% decrease in net income and fewer bookings for their outsourced labor. The company cited higher benefit costs due to layoffs, and just having less demand for its services as the reasons for the decline in profits and earnings.

Duarte’s conclusion: Expectations are for somewhere around 200,000 job losses on Friday’s employment report. But the range is huge, from 115,000 to as much as 365,000 losses. That means that no one really has any clue as to what’s likely.

It’s clear that layoffs have decreased, and that for some segments of the economy there is at least marginal improvement, although that remains patchy.

Our stock bellwethers suggest that the upper and middle end of corporate American might have a positive surprise in this report. By the same token, the indicators project something less than nice for the small business sector.

Since that’s the sector of the economy that provides the bulk of jobs in the U.S., we would lean to a slightly weaker than expected set of payroll numbers on Friday, but not a very nasty surprise.

That’s just a guess, though. And we wouldn’t bet the farm on it.

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Duarte partners with the Investors Resource Center at Investrend Information (http://www.investrendinformation.com).

Duarte’s IntelligentForecasts.com (http://www.intelligentforecasts.com) provides free news coverage and analysis, and his daily articles and news summaries offer recommendations and analysis for ETFs, and individual stocks in the technology, health and biotechnology, and energy sectors. Duarte has combined expertise in health care, energy, and the effects of politics and global intelligence on the financial markets offer a unique blend of insight and information to thousands of active investors and political and intelligence aficionados around the world on a daily basis.

He is the author of: Futures And Options For Dummies, Successful Energy Sector Investing, Successful Biotech Investing and co-author of After-Hours Trading Made Easy. In early 2001, in Successful Energy Sector Investing, he correctly predicted that Venezuela’s political problems could lead to an energy crisis in the United States. He has also appeared as a weekly guest on Market Mavens Radio and has logged appearances on KNX radio in Los Angeles, Financial Sense.com radio, and Wall Street Radio.

One of CNBC’s original Market Mavens, Dr. Duarte has been writing about the financial markets since 1990. His articles and commentary have been featured on CBS Marketwatch, Barron’s, Smart Money, Medical Economics, and in Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities magazines. In 2003, Doctor Duarte received second place, in the professional section, of the Medical Economics Investment Challenge with a 12-month return of 42%.

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