World Economic Outlook, October 2017
Global temperatures have increased at an unprecedented pace over the past 40 years, and significant further warming could occur, depending on our ability to restrain greenhouse gas emissions. This chapter finds that increases in temperature have uneven macroeconomic effects, with adverse consequences concentrated in countries with relatively hot climates, such as most low-income countries. In these countries, a rise in temperature lowers per capita output, in both the short and medium term. Sound domestic policies and development alongside investment in adaptation strategies could help to some extent, but given the constraints faced by low-income countries, the international community must play a key role in supporting these countries’ efforts to cope with climate change.
Full Text of Chapter 3 Blog- Introduction
- Temperature and Precipitation: Historical Patterns and Projections
- The Macroeconomic Impact of Weather Shocks
- Coping with Weather Shocks and Climate Change
- Long-Term Effects of Temperature Increase—A Model-Based Approach
- Summary and Policy Implications
- Box 3.1. The Growth Impact of Tropical Cyclones
- Box 3.2. The Role of Policies in Coping with Weather Shocks: A Model-Based Analysis
- Box 3.3. Strategies for Coping with Weather Shocks and Climate Change: Selected Case Studies
- Box 3.4. Coping with Weather Shocks: The Role of Financial Markets
- Box 3.5. Historical Climate, Economic Development, and World Income Distribution
- Box 3.6. Mitigating Climate Change
- Annex 3.1. Data Sources and Country Groupings
- Annex 3.2. Weather Shocks and Natural Disasters
- Annex 3.3. Empirical Analysis of the Macroeconomic Effects of Weather Shocks and the Role of Policies
- Annex 3.4. The Impact of Weather Changes and Natural Disasters on International Migration
- Annex 3.5. Model-Based Analysis
- Annex 3.6. Reduced Form Approach to Estimating Potential Long-Term Effects of Climate Change
- References
- Table 3.1.1. Characteristics of the Average Tropical Cyclone by Country Group
- Table 3.1.2. Effect of Weather and Wind Shocks on Economic Activity
- Table 3.5.1. Effect of Historical Climate on Current Real Output
- Annex Table 3.1.1. Data Sources
- Annex Table 3.1.2. Country and Territory Groups
- Annex Table 3.2.1. Effect of Weather Shocks on Natural Disasters, 1990-2014
- Annex Table 3.3.1. Effect of Weather Shocks on Output
- Annex Table 3.3.2. Effect of Weather Shocks on Sectoral Output
- Annex Table 3.3.3. Effect of Weather Shocks on Productivity, Capital, and Labor
- Annex Table 3.3.4. Role of Policy Buffers
- Annex Table 3.3.5. Role of Structural Policies and Institutions
- Annex Table 3.3.6. Role of Development: Evidence from Subnational Data
- Annex Table 3.4.1. Effect of Weather Shocks and Natural Disasters on Emigration, 1980-2015
- Annex Table 3.5.1. Parameterization of the Debt, Investment, and Growth Model
Figures | |||
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Chart | Data | 3.1 | Average Global Temperature |
Chart | Data | 3.2 | Increase in Average Global Temperature and Contributions of Key Factors |
Chart | Data | 3.3 | Temperature and Precipitation across Broad Country Groups |
Chart | Data | 3.4 | Annual CO2 Emissions across Broad Country Groups |
Chart | -- | 3.5 | Temperature and Precipitation Projections under the RCP 8.5 Scenario |
Chart | Data | 3.6 | Natural Disasters: Historical and Projected Monthly Probability of Occurrence |
Chart | Data | 3.7 | Effect of Temperature Increase on Real per Capita Output |
Chart | Data | 3.8 | Effect of Temperature Increase on Real per Capita Output across the Globe |
Chart | Data | 3.9 | Effect of Temperature Increase on Sectoral Output Estimated at the Temperature of the Median Low-Income Developing Country |
Chart | Data | 3.10 | Effect of Temperature Increase on Productivity, Capital, and Labor Input Estimated at the Temperature of the Median Low-Income Developing Country |
Chart | Data | 3.11 | Effect of Temperature Increase on Real per Capita Output Estimated at the Temperature of the Median Low-Income Developing Country over Time |
Chart | -- | 3.12 | Coping with Weather Shocks and Climate Change: A Toolkit |
Chart | Data | 3.13 | The Role of Policy Buffers |
Chart | Data | 3.14 | The Role of Structural Policies and Institutions |
Chart | Data | 3.15 | The Role of Development: Evidence from Subnational Data |
Chart | Data | 3.16 | Effect of Temperature and Natural Disasters on International Migration |
Chart | Data | 3.17 | Long-Term Impact of Temperature Increase for a Representative Low-Income Developing Country: Model Simulations |
Chart | Data | 3.18 | Vulnerability to Temperature Increase and Adaptation Prospects |
Chart | Data | 3.1.1 | Effect of Tropical Cyclone Exposure on Real GDP per Capita |
Chart | Data | 3.1.2 | Cumulative Effect of Average Tropical Cyclone on Real GDP per Capita after Seven Years |
Chart | Data | 3.2.1 | The Role of Policies: A Model-Based Analysis |
Chart | Data | 3.4.1 | Insurance Penetration: Non-Life Insurance Premium |
Chart | Data | 3.4.2 | Catastrophe Bond Market |
Chart | Data | 3.4.3 | Temperature Shocks and Stock Price Predictability: Food and Beverages Sector |
Chart | Data | 3.6.1 | Effectiveness of Mitigation Policies in China |
Chart | Data | Annex 3.3.1 | Effect of Temperature Increase on Real per Capita Output across the Globe, with Countries Rescaled in Proportion to Their Projected Population as of 2100 |
Chart | -- | Annex 3.6.1 | The Long-Term Impact of Temperature Increase on Real per Capita Output across the Globe |