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Supply Remains an Issue Despite Impact of Higher Mortgage Rates

TRREB Calls on Municipal Election Candidates to Remain Focused on Addressing Housing Affordability

TORONTO, Oct. 05, 2022 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) housing market continued its adjustment to higher borrowing costs in September 2022. Sales for the month reached 5,038, but were down by 44.1 per cent compared to September 2021.

New listings were also down on a year-over-year basis by 16.7 per cent to 11,237. This was the lowest number of new listings reported for the month of September since 2002. This is especially troublesome given that the stock of homes in the GTA increased markedly over the last 20 years.

Recent polling by Ipsos Public Affairs for TRREB1 suggests that the public agrees the lack of housing supply is a key issue in the GTA. The poll found that 71 per cent of combined Toronto and ‘905’ regions residents believe that municipalities should focus their efforts on increasing the supply of homes for sale and rent rather than trying to reduce demand for housing.

“We must ensure that the temporary dip in housing demand is not allowed to mask the critical shortage of homes available for sale in the GTA. Candidates running in the upcoming Ontario municipal elections must ensure home buyers and renters have adequate housing options in the years to come. Municipal council decisions have a direct impact on housing affordability, in terms of the protracted development approval processes, high development fees and other related policies that preclude timely housing development,” said TRREB President Kevin Crigger.

“Elected councils must also reconsider existing policies that preclude homeowners from listing their homes for sale, including significant added upfront costs like the land transfer tax. Potential new policies like mandatory home energy audits could also create unnecessary interference and delays in the home selling process and dissuade some homeowners from listing their homes for sale,” said TRREB CEO John DiMichele.

“Energy audits should be voluntary, a feeling which is supported 73 per cent of Torontonians and 78 per cent of ‘905’ residents recently polled by Ipsos Public Affairs for TRREB. If councils continue to support policies that restrict new home development and existing home listings, such as exclusionary zoning, housing affordability will be severely hampered over the long term, which will also hamper our region’s future growth,” added DiMichele.

The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) Composite benchmark was up on a year-over-year basis by 4.3 per cent. Over the same period of time, the average price dipped by 4.3 per cent to $1,086,762. The average price was up compared to August 2022.

“Hovering just below $1.1 million, the average selling price may have found some support during the last couple months of summer. With new listings down quite substantially year-over-year and well-below historic norms, some home buyers are quite possibly experiencing tighter market conditions in some GTA neighbourhoods. October generally represents the peak of the fall market, so it will be important to see where price trends head over the next month,” said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer.

To learn more about the housing affordability issues affecting GTA residents, visit GiveMeOptions.ca

Summary of TRREB MLS® System Sales and Average Price September 1–30, 2022
  2022 2021
  Sales Average Price New Listings Sales Average Price New Listings
City of Toronto ("416") 1,744 1,061,876 4,493 3,387 1,090,422 5,958
Rest of GTA ("905") 3,294 1,099,938 6,744 5,623 1,161,895 7,536
GTA 5,038 1,086,762 11,237 9,010 1,135,027 13,494


TRREB MLS® System Sales & Average Price by Home Type September 1–30, 2022
  Sales Average Price
  416 905 Total 416 905 Total
Detached 497 1,837 2,334 1,585,589 1,310,639 1,369,186
Yr./Yr. % Change -44.3% -38.7% -40.0% -11.0% -9.5% -10.2%
Semi-Detached 180 321 501 1,210,715 949,142 1,043,120
Yr./Yr. % Change -44.4% -35.4% -39.0% -7.3% -4.2% -6.5%
Townhouse 171 659 830 943,922 890,608 901,592
Yr./Yr. % Change -53.0% -44.5% -46.5% 1.3% -1.4% -0.9%
Condo Apartment 875 442 1,317 769,058 655,117 730,818
Yr./Yr. % Change -51.0% -49.2% -50.4% 3.4% 3.3% 3.2%


September 2022 Year-Over-Year Per Cent Change in the MLS® HPI
  Composite (All Types) Single-Family Detached Single-Family
Attached
Townhouse Apartment
TRREB Total 4.25% 1.85% 3.55% 7.70% 13.31%
Halton Region 0.03% -0.75% 1.13% 1.22% 5.53%
Peel Region 5.30% 3.39% 3.78% 9.30% 17.57%
City of Toronto 5.21% 1.20% 1.79% 10.71% 12.52%
York Region 6.74% 4.48% 7.86% 9.03% 17.72%
Durham Region 1.76% 1.06% 1.41% 7.47% 15.12%
Orangeville 3.12% 0.87% 2.99% 13.15% 24.41%
South Simcoe County1 0.00% -0.88% 3.20% 7.36% 19.58%
Source:Toronto Regional Real Estate Board
1South Simcoe includes Adjala-Tosorontio, Bradford West Gwillimbury, Essa, Innisfil and New Tecumseth

Please note the methodology used to calculate MLS® HPI has been changed. For more information, click HERE.

Year-to-Date Summary of TRREB MLS® System Sales and Average Price September 2022
  2022 2021
  Sales Average Price New Listings Sales Average Price New Listings
City of Toronto ("416") 22,951 1,157,553 46,268 33,744 1,047,312 51,700
Rest of GTA ("905") 39,687 1,245,007 83,234 63,160 1,096,182 87,930
GTA 62,638 1,212,963 129,502 96,904 1,079,164 139,630


YTD TRREB MLS® System Sales & Average Price by Home Type September 2022
  Sales Average Price
  416  905  Total 416  905  Total
Detached 6,234  21,698  27,932  1,837,880  1,504,878  1,579,199 
Yr./Yr. % Change -30.2% -38.5% -36.8% 8.0% 12.8% 12.1%
Semi-Detached 2,117  3,718  5,835  1,403,395  1,095,549  1,207,239 
Yr./Yr. % Change -31.8% -36.5% -34.8% 9.5% 17.4% 14.5%
Townhouse 2,297  8,245  10,542  1,052,511  997,078  1,009,156 
Yr./Yr. % Change -38.2% -37.4% -37.5% 13.6% 17.9% 16.9%
Condo Apartment 12,128  5,633  17,761  791,186  716,562  767,519 
Yr./Yr. % Change -31.8% -31.2% -31.6% 12.1% 19.5% 14.1%

Source: Toronto Regional Real Estate Board

Seasonally Adjusted TRREB MLS® Sales and Average Price1  
         
  Sales Month-over-Month
% Chg.
Average Price Month-over-Month %
Chg.
September '21 9,311 -1.1% $1,140,007 2.0%
October '21 9,925 6.6% $1,155,104 1.3%
November '21 9,335 -5.9% $1,181,226 2.3%
December '21 8,983 -3.8% $1,210,375 2.5%
January '22 8,645 -3.8% $1,272,097 5.1%
February '22 9,163 6.0% $1,285,129 1.0%
March '22 7,876 -14.0% $1,252,680 -2.5%
April '22 6,631 -15.8% $1,204,076 -3.9%
May '22 6,074 -8.4% $1,172,093 -2.7%
June '22 5,780 -4.8% $1,138,924 -2.8%
July '22 5,296 -8.4% $1,107,613 -2.7%
August '22 5,885 11.1% $1,130,463 2.1%
September '22 5,248 -10.8% $1,099,668 -2.7%


Source: Toronto Regional Real Estate Board; CREA Seasonal Adjustment. 1 Preliminary seasonal adjustment undertaken by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA).  Removing normal seasonal variations allows for more meaningful analysis of monthly changes and underlying trends.

READ THE FULL REPORT.

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Notes
1 This Ipsos poll was commissioned by TRREB. Polling took place between September 12 to September 27, 2022, and was conducted online via Ipsos’ i-Say panel. There was a total of n=1002 respondents, n=515 GTA 416 and n=486 from GTA 905. The margin of error with this sample size is +/- 3.5 percentage points.

Media Inquiries:
Genevieve Grant, Manager, Public Affairs genevieve.grant@trreb.ca 416-443-8159

The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board is Canada’s largest real estate board with more than 68,000 residential and commercial professionals connecting people, property and communities.

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