Table 1. Serbia: Selected Economic and Social Indicators

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

CR 20/270

Proj.

CR 20/270

Proj.

Proj.

(Percent change, unless otherwise indicated)

Real sector

Real GDP

3.3

2.1

4.5

4.2

-3.0

-1.5

6.0

5.0

4.5

Real domestic demand (absorption)

1.5

3.9

6.5

6.2

-1.8

-1.7

8.0

6.7

4.6

Consumer prices (average)

1.1

3.1

2.0

1.9

1.5

1.7

1.9

1.9

2.3

GDP deflator

1.5

3.0

2.0

2.4

3.8

3.5

2.3

2.4

2.7

Unemployment rate (in percent) 1/

15.9

14.1

13.3

10.9

…

…

…

…

…

Nominal GDP (in billions of dinars)

4,528

4,761

5,073

5,418

5,448

5,524

5,907

5,940

6,375

(Percent of GDP)

General government finances

Revenue 2/

40.7

41.5

41.5

42.1

38.2

40.3

41.1

40.8

41.3

Expenditure 2/

41.9

40.4

40.9

42.3

46.8

49.2

43.2

43.8

42.8

Current 2/

37.9

36.7

36.4

36.9

42.3

43.1

37.5

37.6

36.7

Capital and net lending

3.2

3.1

4.1

5.1

4.3

5.9

5.3

6.0

5.8

Amortization of called guarantees

0.9

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.2

0.1

0.4

0.2

0.3

Fiscal balance 3/

-1.2

1.1

0.6

-0.2

-8.6

-8.9

-2.0

-3.0

-1.5

Primary fiscal balance (cash basis)

1.7

3.6

2.8

1.8

-6.6

-6.9

-0.1

-1.1

0.3

Structural primary fiscal balance 4/

1.7

3.7

2.8

1.6

1.1

1.2

1.1

0.5

0.4

Gross debt /5

68.8

58.6

54.4

52.8

59.8

59.1

57.0

57.7

55.5

(End of period 12-month change, percent)

Monetary sector

Money (M1)

20.3

9.7

20.1

16.3

6.0

24.2

12.2

7.5

8.7

Broad money (M2)

9.8

3.3

15.0

8.8

5.5

12.7

9.0

7.1

7.3

Domestic credit to non-government 6/

1.8

4.4

10.1

9.5

6.6

10.6

8.4

6.5

7.8

(Period average, percent)

Interest rates (dinar)

NBS key policy rate

3.3

3.9

3.1

2.3

…

…

…

…

…

Interest rate on new FX and FX-indexed loans

3.1

3.1

2.8

3.1

…

…

…

…

…

(Percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)

Balance of payments

Current account balance

-2.9

-5.2

-4.8

-6.9

-6.4

-5.7

-6.5

-5.8

-5.6

Exports of goods

34.8

35.9

35.2

35.7

33.2

32.6

33.5

33.8

36.8

Imports of goods

-43.3

-46.1

-47.1

-47.9

-44.1

-43.5

-46.0

-46.5

-49.4

Trade of goods balance

-8.5

-10.2

-11.9

-12.2

-10.9

-10.9

-12.6

-12.7

-12.6

Capital and financial account balance

0.6

4.8

6.7

10.6

6.1

5.6

7.3

6.6

6.6

External debt (percent of GDP) 7/

76.4

68.8

66.1

66.1

68.6

67.4

65.3

64.3

61.4

of which: Private external debt

29.4

29.6

30.9

31.7

30.3

29.9

29.0

28.8

27.3

Gross official reserves (in billions of euro)

10.2

10.0

11.3

13.4

13.2

13.4

13.6

13.7

14.3

(in months of prospective imports)

5.5

4.7

4.8

6.2

5.6

5.5

5.1

5.0

4.7

(percent of short-term debt)

345.2

200.3

194.2

204.4

247.9

204.0

255.8

209.8

217.9

(percent of broad money, M2)

58.7

53.2

52.2

57.8

57.2

56.8

54.8

54.6

53.2

(percent of risk-weighted metric)

…

…

113.1

121.8

177.3

122.0

180.2

120.7

119.2

Exchange rate (dinar/euro, period average)

123.1

121.4

118.3

117.9

…

…

…

…

…

REER (annual average change, in percent;

+ indicates appreciation)

-1.0

2.9

2.8

1.0

…

…

…

…

…

Social indicators

Per capita GDP (in US$)

5,765

6,293

7,252

7,392

7,458

7,723

8,442

8,922

9,653

Real GDP per capita (percent change)

3.9

2.6

5.1

4.5

-2.6

-1.1

6.4

5.5

4.9

Population (in million)

7.1

7.0

7.0

7.0

6.9

6.9

6.9

6.9

6.9

Sources: Serbian authorities; and IMF staff estimates and projections.

1/ Unemployment rate for working age population (15-64).

2/ Includes employer contributions.

3/ Includes amortization of called guarantees.

4/ Primary fiscal balance adjusted for the automatic effects of the output gap both on revenue and spending as well as one-offs.

5/ Excludes state guarantees on bank loans under the credit guarantee scheme introduced in response to the COVID-19 crisis, estimated

at 0.7 percent of GDP as of mid-October 2020.

6/ At constant exchange rates.

7/ After CR19/369, domestic securities held by non-residents are included in external debt. Historical data were updated since 2015.

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