On May 14, the Public Health and Economic Emergency Commission unanimously voted to send a letter of support endorsing the governor’s plan to transition most of the state to the low (yellow) risk phase outlined in the state’s phased guidelines and the Utah Leads Together Plan, which includes a targeted plan to help those who are most vulnerable to COVID-19. 

The Commission's goal is to make data-driven recommendations in consultation with economic advisors and elected officials that protect vulnerable populations and allow the state to carefully transition to a lower risk status. Some increase in COVID-19 cases is expected as the state transitions phases. However, the metrics driving recommendations and decisions include hospital utilization rates, the transmission rate and rate of community spread, as well as new insights about high-risk populations.

The Commission reemphasizes that the low (yellow) phase does not apply to vulnerable populations. High-risk individuals should continue to follow the guidelines listed in the high-risk (red) phase.

Utah’s COVID-19 patient fatality data as of May 11:

• 94 percent of individuals who have passed away in Utah were age 65 or older and/or in a high-risk category, as defined by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), which was adopted by the Commission’s Medical Advisory Team Working Group.

• 74 years is the median age of individuals who have passed away from COVID-19 in the state.

• 70.2 percent of fatalities were age 65 or older.

• 75 percent of fatalities had at least one underlying health risk factor.

“Since the beginning of the pandemic, Utah has made decisions based on data,” said Jefferson Burton, co-chair of the Commission. “After carefully reviewing data and trends over the past several weeks, we feel the state is ready to move into the next phase of the Utah Leads Together plan. This was not an emotional decision, but one of careful consideration.”

“Utah has been more vigilant than almost any other state in testing and data gathering,” said Sen. Dan Hemmert, co-chair the Commission. “The Commission is using real-time data to drive recommendations. Protecting the vulnerable among us must remain a top priority as we transition into the low-risk phase. While data indicates most people will recover from COVID-19, we all must be vigilant in protecting at-risk individuals.”

Information about key factors and high-risk populations are below.

 Key factors the Commission is utilizing:

• Transmission Proxy Rate:  Transmission rates indicate how quickly the virus is spreading and provide insight into whether preventative policies effectively limit the spread. Transmission rates show, on average, how many additional people a single infected individual is infecting.  A transmission rate with a ratio at or near 1:1 for 7-14 consecutive days indicates an adequate level of stability. The state's transmission rate has been between 1.0 and 1.5 for more than 21 consecutive days.

• Community Spread: Community spread represents cases with an unknown source of infection. Lower rates of community spread mean that contact tracers are more likely to be able to find, contact and quarantine individuals who were exposed to the virus, limiting further spread.  A stable rate of community spread would be indicated by exposure from known contacts remaining above 60 percent, and above 85 percent in the best case, in the past 14 days (cases still under investigation are removed). The exposure from known contacts has been at or above 80 percent for 28 consecutive days.

High-risk populations include:

• Individuals in Long Term Care Facilities: Individuals in long-term care facilities, specifically nursing homes, are at the highest risk of COVID-19 mortality. As of last week, nearly half of Utah’s fatalities were associated with care facilities, with 37 percent being residents of long-term care facilities.

• Hispanics/Latinos: In Utah, the current infection and death rate shows a high disproportion rate among Hispanics/Latinos. Hispanics/Latinos makeup 14.2 percent of Utah's population and account for 37.9 percent of the state’s COVID-19 cases. Among all Utahns, 0.56 percent of Hispanics/Latinos are infected, while the average statewide infection rate is 0.21 percent based on testing to date. Large scale field testing, which is in the process of being conducted, will provide a better understanding.

• Individuals with Comorbidities: Individuals with comorbidities are at a higher risk of death if infected. Comorbidities include cardiovascular disease, diabetes, chronic respiratory disease, hypertension and cancer. 

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Public Health and Economic Emergency Commission Members

• Jefferson Burton, Department of Health, co-chair

• Sen. Dan Hemmert, co-chair

• President Stuart Adams

• Rep. Mike Schultz

• Brandy Grace, Utah Association of Counties

• Steve Starks, Larry H. Miller Corporation

• Dr. Michael Good, University of Utah Health

• Brian Dunn, Steward Healthcare

• Steve Starks, Larry H. Miller Corporation

• Derek Miller, Salt Lake Chamber of Commerce

• Mark Bouchard, Community Leader