Author/Editor:

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Publication Date:

July 15, 2019

Electronic Access:

Free Full Text. Use the free Adobe Acrobat Reader to view this PDF file

Summary:

Financial markets stabilized in May and June after a period of turmoil in late April prompted by political uncertainties and a significant increase in inflation and inflation expectations. High interest rates, seasonal dollar inflows from the agricultural sector, greater clarity on the candidates in the October election, and the BCRA’s announcement that it may intervene to support the peso in the event of disorderly market conditions have helped better anchor the exchange rate. Modest exchange rate appreciation and continued fiscal and monetary policy restraint have supported a decline in monthly inflation in April and May. In addition, the fiscal position has been helped by higher-than-expected inflation (boosting nominal tax revenues) and a cautious approach to spending. Economic activity weakened further in Q1, but the recession is likely to have ended, with sequential growth expected to be positive in the coming quarters. Sovereign spreads remain high and, while rollover rates for federal government liabilities have been in line with program assumptions, average debt maturities have shortened, increasing gross financing needs in the months leading up to the election.